MyDD :: June Money

June Money

by Jerome Armstrong, Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 12:27:53 PM EST

As thought, the Obama campaign kicked open the doors of the DNC fundraising operation in June, raising over $20M; and the Obama campaign did much better than expectations, raising over $50M.

So lets review the numbers after May and June.

McCain
          May      June...    Sept-Nov

Raised    22       22       
Spent     12       27
COH       32       27 
GE                            84


Obama
          May      June...    Sept-Nov

Raised    22       50(+2)       
Spent     27       23
COH       33       60  
GE                            12

So lets review. While Obama pulled into about a 5 point lead, over the past month nationally, McCain outspent Obama by $4M. Meanwhile, Obama is ahead in a number of battleground states, and leads pretty solidly in the electoral vote count right now. Little wonder then, why the McCain camp did some serious reshuffling of their campaign leadership at the beginning of the month, as they tried (spending $15M on TV) to move McCain ahead in June, and failed. Or maybe they were just trying to keep him close (and given the macro environment that may be as best as they could do) in the battleground states.

One other thing. I believe that Obama could have raised $100M in June if that's what they wanted to do. In fact, there may have been plans to do just that too, but they changed. Notice that just $2M was raised for the GE by Obama, they certainly could have raised a ton more money there if they had wanted, for the GE, at least $20-30M, and combined with the $74M that was raised between Obama and DNC, over $100M.

So, either the Obama camp isn't as committed to self-funding for the GE, and might still go the route of taking the $84M in public financing (unlikely); or they are holding off their donors to give for the GE later (there are accounts of projecting a $100M month in Sept); or the Obama camp will use July and August to raise big numbers for the GE, as the decision to opt-out was made on June 19th, late in the month for fundraising plans. It could be either of these last two it seems.

I'll take a look at the DNC vs RNC numbers, and how they are both now funneling money into the states through a loophole of McCain-Feingold, in the next post later today.

Tags: Barack Obama, John McCain (all tags)

Permalink :: 31 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: June Money (none / 0)

From Jonathan earlier: "It's interesting to see the press... try to make the argument that Obama's $52 million somehow fails to meet expectations, too."

From you just now: "I believe that Obama could have raised $100M in June if that's what they wanted to do."

Will you please explain your thinking? Those two paragraphs are painted with pretty broad strokes, without any logical explanation.

by not Brit on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 12:37:28 PM EST

Re: June Money (none / 0)

The money is there. Obama could raise 100 million in one month if he wanted to. To do so would be horrible politics. The people like me who donate $25 at a time would no longer feel the need to donate if Obama put out that kind of number.

Something like, "If Obama has that much money, I can spend the money I have been saving on gas, or a movie, or a night out."

McCain = bad Obama = good

by CAchemist on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 03:22:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June Money (none / 0)

I'd call the "could have raised $100M" line a side swipe or maybe a light bump. But at least it's not an open attack on the presumptive nominee, which is nice.

by not Brit on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 12:40:57 PM EST

Re: June Money (2.00 / 3)

Sounds like a choice not to raise $100 million now and not a limitation. I take that as a compliment.

by elrod on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 12:51:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June Money (2.00 / 3)

Also how I read it. Cut Jerome some slack guys and gals. He is slowly coming round!

by conspiracy on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 12:56:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June Money (2.00 / 1)

Good call. I rescind.

by not Brit on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 12:57:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June Money (2.00 / 1)

Absolutely not. This is a reference to strategy (probably very clever strategy too.)

O happy joyous days, we finally see a negative-free Obama post from Jerome!

I realize this may be a one-off, but at least it's something.

A drink whenever Palin makes a Well-argued, Semantically Intact, Logical and Lucid Argument -- or WASILLA for short.

by January 20 on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 01:17:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

50M for the primary in June? (none / 0)

WTF? What will he spend this money on? The primary is over. Is the Obama campaign that deep in debt or have I completely misread these numbers.

by 1arryb on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 12:43:26 PM EST

he can spend primary $$ until the convention (2.00 / 5)

is over.

by Geekesque on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 12:45:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: he can spend primary $$ until the convention (2.00 / 1)

Ah. The primary isn't officially over till the convention. Got it.

by 1arryb on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 12:46:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: he can spend primary $$ until the convention (2.00 / 2)

Primary money can also be "rolled over" into the general.

TPM Link...

by not Brit on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 12:56:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This is an important point (none / 0)

It should be stressed.

"No government has the right to tell its citizens whom to love. The only queer people are those who don't love anybody." - Rita Mae Brown

by auboy2006 on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 02:17:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sucks to be on the wrong side of history, (none / 0)

Johnny Mac.

by Geekesque on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 12:44:44 PM EST

they are asking for GE money (none / 0)

I maxed out for the primary on 1/16/07. Therefore, they have not asked me for money for 18 months (other than to be a mini-bundler). Yesterday morning, I got a campaign email asking me to go "all in" for the general.

Our Moment Is Now

by mboehm on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 12:48:57 PM EST

Re: they are asking for GE money (2.00 / 3)

And that is why they are going to raise at LEAST $50m a month between now and election day - people who maxed out on primary funds can now max out for the general election.

by conspiracy on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 12:53:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: they are asking for GE money (2.00 / 1)

Very good point. The MSM hand-wringing over Obama's potential financial woes seems to have been much ado over absolutely nothing. Still, the MSM's incompetence has been to Obama's benefit. Because that false meme has been pushed hard by the MSM, especially because it fit into their other false meme about big money Hillary supporters hating Obama and not wanting to donate to him, expectations for Obama's fundraising have been lowered.

When the actual number comes out, as it did today, it's now "news" because it has exceeded the MSM generated lowered expectations, and now the MSM is forced to talk positively about the Obama campaign and speculate about Obama's turn-around, renewed momentum, etc.

And with Obama's pending trip overseas, I think we're going to see a period of very positive Obama coverage, and we'll perhaps see a post-European tour bump in the polls.

by ProfessorReo on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 01:16:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June Money (none / 0)

I wanna see the Obama campaign take a cue from the Clinton campaign and mention that they're being outspent early and often.

I'm voting for Saxby Chambliss!

by Jess81 on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 01:16:36 PM EST

I Dunno (2.00 / 1)

Not sure how much good that did Clinton, I guess maybe it riled up some of her low-dollar donors...

by Hatch on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 01:31:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Helps in the press (none / 0)

There was a constant chorus of "all his money and she still won PA."

by JJE on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 02:44:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Excuse me. In your dreams. (none / 0)

"While Obama pulled into about a 5 point lead, over the past month nationally'

Vast majority of Real Clear polls show Obama with a three point lead. Rasmussen claims they are tied.

It was reported that Obama campaign said earlier (unwisely) that one week after Clinton goes south their candidate would have a ten to 15 point or they would have to reconsider their approach.

I remember McCain was so flat that he was carring his own luggage. This guy is tough.

by joliepoint on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 01:16:54 PM EST

Re: Excuse me. In your dreams. (2.00 / 1)

Well, variouys polls have pegged it between tied and Obama having a 9 point lead, but no polls sho McCain ahead.

Additionally, Obama leads in key battle ground states, and is putting pressure on McCain's Redstates, all while McCain has been outspending Obama.

I'll grant that McCain is one tough SOB, but he's not going to have enough to put him over the top.

by NewOaklandDem on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 01:25:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Excuse me. In your dreams. (2.00 / 1)

You are right. I meant to say that McCain has been three points below Obama. Sorry about that.

by joliepoint on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 01:57:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The RCP average has bounced between a lead of 4-5 (none / 0)

by conspiracy on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 03:32:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June Money (2.00 / 1)

Jerome,I love it when write about what you know best. We have important business ahead so lets keep these really great diaries coming!

by eddieb on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 01:24:20 PM EST

Re: June Money (2.00 / 1)

I'm a little confused about the COH number. Didn't the press report that Obama had 72 million COH at the end of June?

by animated on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 01:37:31 PM EST

Re: June Money (2.00 / 2)

It's 60 for the primary only plus 12 for the general = 72 total COH.

Our Moment Is Now

by mboehm on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 02:00:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

But really, it's all the same (none / 0)

considering Obama can roll his primary funds over into the general because he's not doing public financing.

"No government has the right to tell its citizens whom to love. The only queer people are those who don't love anybody." - Rita Mae Brown

by auboy2006 on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 02:17:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

that's true (none / 0)

They probably already have enough money to comfortably get them through the next six weeks and anything they collect from now on is really GE money.

Our Moment Is Now

by mboehm on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 02:31:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Money game (none / 0)

Now see, I think what is happening is that the Obama camp is squeezing all it can out of primary donors, before focusing on GE donors. If you donate to the primary fight, you can then turn around a donate to the GE fight, above and beyond the primary donation (I think). So it makes sense (if I have it right) to tap out all the primary contributions you can at this point as it really is, in all honesty, money used for the GE.

In fact, in all honesty this is a loophole of sorts. One that all presidential contenders use mind you, but still a loophole. Obama is essentially done with the Primary fight in all but name only, as is McCain. So the money they are spending now is considered primary money despite it really being money used for the GE.

All COH is GE money at this point. McCain has an edge, but only because he has a chunk of public finance money sitting there. He is going to be horribly out-raised and spent starting late August. Hell given the symbolism the Obama campaign has (mostly) effectively tapped into (e.g going to the Xcell center in St Paul for a victory speech, essentially pissing on the ground to mark the territory) I would not be surprised if they have splashy media grabbing events planned for the R convention week.

Honestly, barring disaster, McCain is toast. He will not be able to keep up physically, monetarily or mentally once things start in full rabid mode post conventions.

by notedgeways on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 02:46:25 PM EST

Re: Money game (none / 0)

Yes, in other words you can donate up to $4600 (directly to his campaign) until the convention, at which point you can only donate a max of $2300 (directly to his campaign).

by rfahey22 on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 03:58:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: June Money (none / 0)

The combined DNC
...is 450 million, so they've got about 380 to raise in 4 months. Obama needs to raise about 60 million this month (plus 25 mil for the DNC), 70 million next month (plus 30 mil for the DNC), and then about 80 million per month in September and October. Formidable, but not impossible. The key, I think, is to raise at least enough money that some vendors are willing to float them credit if they fall a little short. I don't mind if the campaign is 20 million in debt after winning a landslide.

Obama/Biden 08

by W126 on Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 03:09:57 PM EST

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